Does doing better in primary school show up in later pay?
DfE's own research links Key Stage 2 and GCSE results to LEO earnings records decades later — but every figure here is an association after statistical controls, not a proven cause, and the cohorts are people now in their 30s and 40s, not today's pupils.
A one-standard-deviation improvement in combined KS2 English and maths attainment is associated with £63,700 more in lifetime earnings in present-value terms (£157,500 undiscounted) — a 13.8% increase — after controlling for pupil characteristics and school attended.
Association, not causation
These are adjusted associations, not causal effects. DfE controls for observed pupil characteristics, deprivation and school attended. Unmeasured differences, including home learning and non-cognitive skills, may still affect both attainment and earnings. Higher attainment does not guarantee the earnings shown.
Key Stage 2 attainment and lifetime earnings
£63,700
Per 1 SD improvement, present value
13.8% of average lifetime earnings
£42,200
Maths alone, present value
Larger association than English alone
£26,500
English alone, present value
Smaller association than maths
Maths and English attainment are associated with different-sized figures — not because one subject is inherently more valuable, but because that is what this specific regression finds after its controls.
- Maths (1 SD)£42,200
- English (1 SD)£26,500
DfE, "Key stage 2 attainment and lifetime earnings" (Tarrant, RR1508), published 6 July 2025.
View as table
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Maths (1 SD) | £42,200 |
| English (1 SD) | £26,500 |
Split by subject, a one-standard-deviation improvement in maths alone is associated with £42,200 more in present-value lifetime earnings; the same improvement in English alone, £26,500 more — maths carries a larger association than English.
Most of the maths association runs through GCSE results, not primary school alone
Once GCSE attainment is added as a control, the direct maths association falls from £42,200 to £9,600 present value (77% of it is explained by GCSE results), and the direct English association turns slightly negative — DfE's own reading is that most of the raw KS2 association operates through GCSE outcomes, not as a standalone primary-school effect.
By sex
Women: £75,200 present value (18% of average lifetime earnings). Men: £52,200 (10%). The percentage-of-earnings figure is larger for women, but the cash figure is larger for men, because average lifetime earnings themselves differ by sex.
By free school meal eligibility
Not FSM-eligible: £65,500 present value (13.7%). FSM-eligible: £52,400 (14.4%). The percentage return is similar across both groups — the cash return is smaller for disadvantaged pupils because their average lifetime earnings are lower to begin with.
GCSE attainment and lifetime earnings
A one-standard-deviation improvement in overall GCSE performance is associated with £96,000 more in present-value lifetime earnings — about 20% of average lifetime earnings — for pupils who sat GCSEs in the early 2000s.
A different DfE report, a different cohort (pupils who sat GCSEs in the early 2000s), and the same discipline: an association after controls, not a cause.
- Overall (any subject)£8,500
- Maths£14,500
- English£7,300
- Music£5,500
DfE, "GCSE attainment and lifetime earnings" (Hodge, Little & Weldon), published June 2021.
View as table
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Overall (any subject) | £8,500 |
| Maths | £14,500 |
| English | £7,300 |
| Music | £5,500 |
Returns are largest at the D→C and C→B grade boundaries in most subjects; returns to top grades (A/A*) are robust in some subjects and not statistically distinguishable from zero in others. Non-FSM pupils show a 9% larger marginal return per grade than FSM-eligible pupils; men show an 18% larger average marginal return than women.
A different way of measuring the same question
Tracked only to age 25–33 rather than over a full simulated lifetime, a one-standard-deviation improvement in combined KS2 attainment is associated with 24% higher earnings and a 2 percentage-point higher chance of being in employment at 33.
Once highest qualification held is added as a control, the English earnings effect becomes statistically insignificant while the maths effect remains significant. DfE's own reading: "suggesting returns are generated through facilitating further higher-level study [for English]. Whilst in maths, estimates remain significant, suggesting the skills acquired hold intrinsic value in the labour market."
Ten years after GCSE, by post-16 route
This comparison is not adjusted for who takes each route
DfE's own words on this specific release: "These results should NOT be considered to show the causal impact of studying at a particular qualification level" and "Differences in outcomes between groups should not be attributed solely to obtaining qualifications." Unlike the KS2 and GCSE reports above, these are raw group comparisons, not adjusted for pupil characteristics — a weaker evidentiary standard, carried here rather than smoothed over.
Among the GCSE 2012/13 cohort, tracked to the 2023-24 tax year (~10–11 years after GCSE), non-graduate median earnings at ten years ranged £18,300–£25,600 for women and £24,500–£34,000 for men, depending on GCSE attainment quintile. DfE's own headline: "Apprenticeships (at level 4/5) offer the highest returns at this age" — among the pathways this release compares at the 10-year mark.
The proportion in sustained employment or further study at ten years after GCSEs is consistently higher for graduates than for those with no higher-level qualification, across the combinations DfE reports.
What this does not show
Whether raising a child's KS2 or GCSE grades would raise their future earnings
These are adjusted associations, not causal effects. DfE controls for observed pupil characteristics, deprivation and school attended. Unmeasured differences, including home learning and non-cognitive skills, may still affect both attainment and earnings. Higher attainment does not guarantee the earnings shown.
What this means for a child sitting these exams today
Historical cohorts: KS2 tests in 1996/97–1999/00; GCSEs in 2001/02–2004/05. Curricula, qualifications and the labour market have changed. These findings describe those cohorts, not predictions for pupils taking exams today.
A complete picture of income
LEO links school records to PAYE earnings (from 2003/04) and self-employment returns (from 2013/14). It excludes dividends and other capital income. Emigration and income below reporting thresholds create coverage gaps rather than zero earnings. Beyond the observed years, lifetime earnings are modelled using Labour Force Survey transitions, not measured.
Last verified 2026-08-31. Data: DfE, "Key stage 2 attainment and lifetime earnings" (Tarrant, RR1508).
Related pages
- In this sectionFrom classroom to workThe rest of this chapter — what school leads to.
- In this sectionDegrees: what happens next?The same LEO discipline, applied to graduates specifically.
- In this sectionAre children learning more?What the attainment measures behind this page actually track.
- In this sectionEducationThe other chapters, and how this section is built.
Scope and definitions
England, not the UK
Education is devolved. Every figure on this page is England only. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland operate different frameworks with different legal definitions, and their figures are not directly comparable.
What LEO can and cannot see
LEO links school records to PAYE earnings (from 2003/04) and self-employment returns (from 2013/14). It excludes dividends and other capital income. Emigration and income below reporting thresholds create coverage gaps rather than zero earnings. Beyond the observed years, lifetime earnings are modelled using Labour Force Survey transitions, not measured.
These are historical cohorts
Historical cohorts: KS2 tests in 1996/97–1999/00; GCSEs in 2001/02–2004/05. Curricula, qualifications and the labour market have changed. These findings describe those cohorts, not predictions for pupils taking exams today.