Outlook & action · Policy impact
This page is being rebuilt around traceable scenarios, not point estimates
The previous version of this comparison used unsupported point estimates. It is being rebuilt so every figure traces to a stated scenario and its assumptions, rather than a single unexplained number.
Scenario figures under independent review
The previous interactive dials mixed estimates from different years, definitions and modelling assumptions. Those numbers have been withdrawn until every scenario includes a direct primary source, baseline, range, method, uncertainty and publication date.
Publication standard
- Separate observed data from forecasts and illustrative scenarios.
- Show the baseline, time horizon and range—not only a central estimate.
- Link directly to the model or primary publication.
- State material assumptions and competing credible estimates.
- Pass an independent accuracy review before publication.