Reference · Trends & signals

A single number can't tell you the direction — these eight can

Eight UK indicators tracked over 10–15 years, each showing its full published series so you can see whether something is historically high, improving or getting worse — not just its latest value.

Movement is measured against the same indicator five years earlier, and a change under 5% is called broadly stable rather than a trend. Where whether a rise is good or bad is a political judgement — migration is the clearest case — the figure is shown in neutral grey.

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Are prices still rising quickly?

3.4%

Up 278% since 2020

But 63% below the 9.1% peak in 20222020 was an unusually low base.

Inflation · United Kingdom · 2025 (released 22 July 2026)

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YearInflation
20103.3%
20114.5%
20122.8%
20132.6%
20141.5%
20150%
20160.7%
20172.7%
20182.5%
20191.8%
20200.9%
20212.6%
20229.1%
20237.3%
20242.5%
20253.4%

A lower inflation rate means prices are rising more slowly — not that prices have fallen. The price level itself has not gone back down.

Source: ONS, Consumer price inflation time series (series D7G7)

Read the full inflation analysis →

Is net migration rising or falling?

171k

Up 84% since 2020

But 81% below the 891k peak in 20222020 was an unusually low base.

Net migration · United Kingdom · YE Dec 2025 (provisional)

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YearNet migration
2012195k
2013244k
2014284k
2015303k
2016249k
2017208k
2018276k
2019184k
202093k
2021467k
2022891k
2023848k
2024331k
2025171k

Arrivals minus departures. Whether a fall is welcome is a political judgement this site does not make; the number itself has more than halved twice since 2022.

Source: ONS, Long-term international migration, provisional (YE Dec 2025 edition, Table 1)

Read the full net migration analysis →

Is the NHS waiting list coming down?

7.29m

Up 59% since 2020

NHS waiting list · England · December 2025 (latest month: July 2026, 7.33m pathways / 6.23m patients)

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YearNHS waiting list
20102.46m
20112.42m
20122.63m
20132.94m
20143.17m
20153.53m
20163.83m
20174m
20184.28m
20194.57m
20204.59m
20216.07m
20227.2m
20237.61m
20247.46m
20257.29m

Treatment pathways, not unique patients — one person waiting for two treatments counts twice. The list has edged down from its 2023 peak but remains close to three times its 2012 level.

Source: NHS England, RTT Overview Timeseries (including estimates for missing trusts)

Read the full nhs waiting list analysis →

Are homes getting more affordable?

7.5×

Broadly stable since 2020

Housing affordability · England and Wales · 2025 (released 26 March 2026)

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YearHousing affordability
20106.8×
20116.7×
20126.8×
20136.7×
20147.0×
20157.4×
20167.6×
20177.8×
20187.8×
20197.7×
20207.8×
20218.9×
20228.4×
20238.3×
20247.7×
20257.5×

Median house price divided by median full-time earnings, England and Wales. Improved from the 2021 peak as earnings rose faster than prices, but still far above the 2010 level.

Source: ONS, Housing affordability in England and Wales (Table 1c, median ratio)

Read the full housing affordability analysis →

Is unemployment rising?

4.9%

Up 7% since 2020

But 40% below the 8.1% peak in 20112020 was an unusually low base.

Unemployment · United Kingdom · 2025 (released 21 July 2026)

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YearUnemployment
20107.9%
20118.1%
20127.9%
20137.6%
20146.2%
20155.4%
20164.9%
20174.4%
20184.1%
20193.8%
20204.6%
20214.6%
20223.8%
20234.1%
20244.3%
20254.9%

Labour Force Survey estimates lost accredited status in November 2023 and are published as official statistics in development — read the trend, not single-period moves.

Source: ONS, Labour market statistics (series MGSX) — official statistics in development

Read the full unemployment analysis →

Is government debt still climbing?

93.7%

Broadly stable since 2020

Public debt · United Kingdom · 2025-26 (provisional; data as at 21 July 2026)

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YearPublic debt
201070.6%
201173.9%
201277.2%
201378.8%
201481.1%
201580.6%
201682.7%
201781.6%
201879.6%
201984.5%
202095.4%
202194.3%
202293.2%
202394.2%
202493.4%
202593.7%

Debt as a share of the economy, not a cash total. It rose sharply with COVID and has been broadly flat since — high by recent standards, though not without precedent historically.

Source: ONS, Public sector finances (series HF6X); OBR Public Finances Databank

Read the full public debt analysis →

Is crime rising or falling?

4.33m

Down 23% since 2020

Crime (survey) · England and Wales · Year ending March 2026 (released 23 July 2026)

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YearCrime (survey)
20109.54m
20119.71m
20129.59m
20138.76m
20147.55m
20157.18m
20166.53m
20176.06m
20186.25m
20196.43m
20205.66m
20234.39m
20244.59m
20254.6m
20264.33m

Crime Survey incidents for England and Wales, excluding fraud. No figures exist for the years ending March 2021 and 2022 — COVID suspended interviewing, so the gap is real, not a dip.

Source: ONS, Crime in England and Wales: Appendix Table A1a

Read the full crime (survey) analysis →

How many children are below the poverty line?

27.4%

Down 11% since 2020

Child poverty · United Kingdom · FYE 2025 (released 26 March 2026)

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YearChild poverty
201127.2%
201227%
201327.2%
201427.5%
201528.5%
201629.4%
201730%
201829.3%
201929.4%
202030.7%
202127.1%
202227.3%
202328.8%
202427.7%
202527.4%

A relative-income measure after housing costs, not a count of destitution. A break in series at 2021/22 means figures either side are not comparable.

Source: DWP, Households Below Average Income (Table 1.4a)

Read the full child poverty analysis →

These are observations, not forecasts. Where a series has a break — child poverty in 2021/22, crime during the COVID interviewing suspension — the chart shows it rather than smoothing over it, because a methodological step can look exactly like a real change if you hide it.