Money & government · Defence

The equipment

Not what critics say about defence procurement — what the government says about itself.

View shareable visual summaries← Defence overviewProgramme by programme

The rate of Red ratings

Across government, 18% of major projects are rated Red. In defence, it is 36%.

Of the 16 Red ratings, 9 are independent assessments and 7are the department’s own. No programme is counted twice: every self-assessed Red has an empty independent-rating field in the published data.

Defence is not simply sharing in a general delivery problem. Excluding the MOD from the comparison, so that defence is not being measured against a total it inflates, 14% of rated projects elsewhere in government are Red — against 41% in defence. Three times the rate.

16 of 44

MOD programmes rated Red

41%

Of those that carry a rating

5 have theirs withheld

18%

The government-wide rate

34 of 189 projects

A delivery-confidence rating is the department’s and the assessment authority’s own judgement of whether a project will arrive on time, on budget and to specification. Red means successful delivery appears unachievable on the current plan. It does not mean the equipment will never arrive, and ratings move in both directions between years.

Programme by programme

Filter by domain or rating. Each card shows what the programme is in plain English, what it costs across its life, whether its end date has moved, and the government’s own stated reason where one is published.

Domain
Government rating

Showing 22 of 22 programmes.

  • RedLand

    Armour MBT (Challenger 3)

    Rebuilds 148 Challenger 2 tanks into Challenger 3, with a new gun, armour and sights. It is the entirety of Britain’s future main battle tank fleet.

    Whole-life cost

    £2.0bn

    Originally due

    May 2031

    Now due

    May 2031

    Government’s own explanation: Downgraded to Red this year. The department cites forecast delays and risk to both initial and full operating capability arising from the prime contractor, and trials in the demonstration phase affecting training.

  • RedLand

    Armoured Cavalry (Ajax)

    A family of tracked reconnaissance vehicles for the Army, first contracted in 2014.

    Whole-life cost

    £8.9bn

    Originally due

    March 2030

    Now due

    March 2030

  • RedDigital

    New Style of IT (Deployed) — OpNET

    The deployed military IT network: the computing and communications that go with forces on operations, rather than sitting in offices.

    Whole-life cost

    £1.6bn

    Originally due

    March 2029

    Now due

    April 2030

    Government’s own explanation: The department records that the programme end date moved from 31 March 2029 to 30 April 2030, and that it is currently operating twelve months behind schedule.

  • RedAirDepartment’s own assessment

    SPEAR Capability 3

    A precision air-launched missile intended to be carried by the F-35B.

    Whole-life cost

    Not published

    Originally due

    Not published

    Now due

    December 2047

    Government’s own explanation: Compounded delays requiring a full re-baseline, and a dependency on the reprofiled F-35B integration timeline. No independent delivery-confidence rating was published this year — the Red shown is the Senior Responsible Owner’s own assessment.

  • RedAirDepartment’s own assessment

    E-7 Wedgetail

    Airborne early warning aircraft — the radar picture that lets the RAF see and direct air operations. The order was cut from five aircraft to three.

    Whole-life cost

    £2.1bn

    Originally due

    Not published

    Now due

    July 2030

  • RedAirDepartment’s own assessment

    Protector

    Replaces the Reaper drone fleet with an aircraft certified to fly in ordinary civilian airspace.

    Whole-life cost

    £1.7bn

    Originally due

    Not published

    Now due

    June 2030

  • RedSeaDepartment’s own assessment

    Mine Hunting Capability

    Replaces crewed minehunter ships with autonomous systems that clear sea mines without putting a crew over them.

    Whole-life cost

    Not published

    Originally due

    Not published

    Now due

    March 2034

  • RedSea

    Type 31 Frigate

    Five general-purpose frigates, built at Rosyth, intended as the cheaper half of a two-tier surface fleet alongside Type 26.

    Whole-life cost

    Not published

    Originally due

    Not published

    Now due

    July 2033

  • RedNuclearDepartment’s own assessment

    Submarine Dismantling

    Disposing of retired nuclear submarines, which are currently stored afloat — some for over thirty years.

    Whole-life cost

    £542m

    Originally due

    March 2027

    Now due

    October 2028

    Government’s own explanation: End date moved out from 31 March 2027 to 31 October 2028.

  • RedNuclear

    Submarine Waterfront Infrastructure Future

    The docks, berths and support facilities the submarine fleet needs to be maintained and rearmed.

    Whole-life cost

    £2.2bn

    Originally due

    Not published

    Now due

    May 2031

  • RedDigital

    Skynet 6

    Military satellite communications — the link that keeps deployed forces connected to the UK.

    Whole-life cost

    Not published

    Originally due

    Not published

    Now due

    December 2041

  • RedAir

    Future Combat Air System (GCAP)

    The next-generation combat aircraft being developed with Italy and Japan to replace Typhoon.

    Whole-life cost

    Not published

    Originally due

    Not published

    Now due

    Not published

  • AmberNuclear

    SSN-AUKUS

    The next class of nuclear-powered attack submarine, built with Australia and the United States.

    Whole-life cost

    Not published

    Originally due

    Not published

    Now due

    April 2043

    Government’s own explanation: Rating unchanged. The department cites supplier infrastructure and tier-one supply chain capacity, and a shortfall in engineering resource for design assurance.

  • AmberOtherDepartment’s own assessment

    Armed Forces Recruiting Programme

    Replaces the three services’ separate recruitment systems with a single tri-service pipeline — the programme meant to fix the staffing problem above.

    Whole-life cost

    £201m

    Originally due

    Not published

    Now due

    April 2028

  • AmberNuclearDepartment’s own assessment

    Astute Boats 1-7

    The current class of nuclear-powered attack submarines, begun in 1997.

    Whole-life cost

    £14.4bn

    Originally due

    Not published

    Now due

    Not published

  • AmberSeaDepartment’s own assessment

    Type 26 Global Combat Ship

    Eight anti-submarine frigates built on the Clyde, also sold to Australia and Canada.

    Whole-life cost

    Not published

    Originally due

    Not published

    Now due

    January 2037

  • AmberSeaDepartment’s own assessment

    Naval Support Integrated Global Network

    The contracted support arrangement that keeps Royal Navy ships maintained and supplied worldwide.

    Whole-life cost

    £14.4bn

    Originally due

    Not published

    Now due

    December 2029

  • AmberOtherDepartment’s own assessment

    Defence Estate Optimisation

    Closing and consolidating military sites, and reinvesting in the ones that remain.

    Whole-life cost

    £5.9bn

    Originally due

    Not published

    Now due

    March 2041

  • AmberOther

    Collective Training Transformation

    Rebuilds how units train together, including simulation, under a single long-term contract.

    Whole-life cost

    £2.1bn

    Originally due

    March 2032

    Now due

    June 2041

    Government’s own explanation: End date moved from 31 March 2032 to 11 June 2041 after the award of a fifteen-year contract slipped by around three months.

  • GreenAirDepartment’s own assessment

    Lightning (F-35)

    Britain’s F-35B fleet, flown from the two aircraft carriers and from land.

    Whole-life cost

    Not published

    Originally due

    Not published

    Now due

    March 2026

  • GreenDigital

    MODNET Evolve

    The MOD’s everyday office IT — laptops, email and desktop systems for staff.

    Whole-life cost

    £309m

    Originally due

    Not published

    Now due

    July 2026

  • Not ratedNuclearRating withheld

    Dreadnought

    The four submarines that will carry the UK’s nuclear deterrent from the 2030s.

    Whole-life cost

    Not published

    Originally due

    Not published

    Now due

    Not published

    Government’s own explanation: Rating, dates and cost are all withheld under national security exemptions. This is the largest single defence programme, and the public data does not say how it is going.

These are the government’s own ratings, not ours. A delivery-confidence assessment reflects the department’s judgement of whether a programme will be delivered on time, on budget and to specification. Red means successful delivery appears unachievable on the current plan — it does not mean the equipment will never arrive, and ratings move in both directions between years.

Where a card is marked Department’s own assessment, no independent delivery-confidence rating was published for that programme and the rating shown is the Senior Responsible Owner’s. It is still the government’s own view, but it is self-assessed rather than independently assessed.

Source: NISTA, Major Projects Annual Report 2025-26 · Ratings as at 31 March 2026

These 22 are a selection from the 44 MOD programmes in the report, chosen to cover every domain and every rating. The counts above are for all 44. Five have their ratings withheld under national security or commercial exemptions, and whole-life costs are withheld for a further ten — including SPEAR 3 and SSN-AUKUS.

One inconsistency is worth recording: the published data gives Armour MBT an end date of 11 October 2032 in the date field, while its own written commentary in the same release says the end date remained at 22 May 2031. The narrative date is used here.

What keeps going wrong

Bespoke perfection

British procurement has repeatedly chased highly customised systems. Eighty per cent of the capability, available now, is often worth more than a hundred per cent years late.

Requirements that change mid-programme

Every alteration after a contract is signed adds cost, complexity and delay — and the schedule narratives in the government’s own data repeatedly say so.

Ambitions announced without credible funding

Parliament has criticised the department for setting out military ambitions ahead of a costed plan to deliver them.

Exquisite platforms without cheap mass

A platform costing £100m defeated by a weapon costing £20,000 is a bad exchange rate. Ukraine has made the quality-versus-quantity balance a live procurement question rather than a theoretical one.

These are our reading of recurring patterns in the published schedule narratives and parliamentary reports, not official findings.

Next: the industrial base that has to build all of this. Or back to the defence overview.