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Jobs & pay · Ill health and work · UK · May to July 2026

Ill health and work: why are more people out of work sick?

2.78 million people aged 16–64 were not working or looking for work mainly because of long-term sickness in May to July 2026, about 700,000 more than at the end of 2019. The survey shows the scale; it cannot by itself show the causes.

Evidence last reviewed 3 October 2026

The rise in long-term sickness

The Labour Force Survey asks people who are neither working nor looking for work for their main reason. Those who answer “long-term sick” — 2.78 million people aged 16–64 in May to July 2026 — are counted here. They are not unemployed, because they are not looking for work, so they do not appear in the unemployment rate at all.

Is ill health keeping more people out of work?

2.78 million people are out of work through long-term sickness, up from 2.08 million before Covid

People aged 16–64 who are economically inactive — not working and not seeking work or not available to start — because of long-term sickness, UK, seasonally adjusted, rolling three-month estimates, 2000 to May to July 2026.

United Kingdom · 2000 to May–Jul 2026

1996–2026 displayed window · observations only. Shading marks years outside the displayed record.

Millions of people aged 16–64No observations shown1.5m2.0m2.5m3.0maxis does not start at 02000201020202.78m
The number out of work through long-term sickness barely moved for a decade, then rose by about 700,000 after 2019. It peaked in Sep–Nov 2023 and has edged down since, but remains far above its pre-pandemic level. The survey cannot say why: mental health conditions, longer NHS waits and an older workforce are all associated with the rise, and their relative weight is still being researched.

United Kingdom · 2000 to May–Jul 2026 · Official statistics, Labour Force Survey; ONS advises caution over short-term changes

Sources, definitions and data — 2.78 million people are out of work through long-term sickness, up from 2.08 million before Covid
Geography:
United Kingdom — People aged 16–64
Measure:
Millions of people
Period:
2000 to May–Jul 2026
Status:
Official statistics, Labour Force Survey; ONS advises caution over short-term changes
Calculation:
As published (LF69, thousands) divided by 1,000. Each point is a three-month window, plotted at its final month.
Compare with:
October–December 2019, 2.08 million; peak 2.85 million in Sep–Nov 2023
Not included / breaks:
Counts only people whose MAIN reason for inactivity is long-term sickness; people working with a health condition, and the unemployed, are not in it. A different measure from the unemployment rate — do not add them together.

Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey: economically inactive because of long-term sickness, 16–64, LF69 (released 15 September 2026). Chart WORK-02b.

View the data as a table
Three months toLong-term sick (thousands)
Nov–Jan 20002,291
Dec–Feb 20002,295
Jan–Mar 20002,306
Feb–Apr 20002,312
Mar–May 20002,302
Apr–Jun 20002,290
May–Jul 20002,288
Jun–Aug 20002,303
Jul–Sep 20002,310
Aug–Oct 20002,318
Sep–Nov 20002,355
Oct–Dec 20002,341
Nov–Jan 20012,336
Dec–Feb 20012,337
Jan–Mar 20012,342
Feb–Apr 20012,341
Mar–May 20012,349
Apr–Jun 20012,341
May–Jul 20012,363
Jun–Aug 20012,365
Jul–Sep 20012,370
Aug–Oct 20012,391
Sep–Nov 20012,387
Oct–Dec 20012,384
Nov–Jan 20022,385
Dec–Feb 20022,382
Jan–Mar 20022,384
Feb–Apr 20022,361
Mar–May 20022,369
Apr–Jun 20022,362
May–Jul 20022,360
Jun–Aug 20022,316
Jul–Sep 20022,307
Aug–Oct 20022,293
Sep–Nov 20022,291
Oct–Dec 20022,283
Nov–Jan 20032,314
Dec–Feb 20032,323
Jan–Mar 20032,307
Feb–Apr 20032,284
Mar–May 20032,271
Apr–Jun 20032,261
May–Jul 20032,263
Jun–Aug 20032,257
Jul–Sep 20032,266
Aug–Oct 20032,293
Sep–Nov 20032,299
Oct–Dec 20032,301
Nov–Jan 20042,273
Dec–Feb 20042,273
Jan–Mar 20042,279
Feb–Apr 20042,304
Mar–May 20042,309
Apr–Jun 20042,315
May–Jul 20042,320
Jun–Aug 20042,338
Jul–Sep 20042,339
Aug–Oct 20042,324
Sep–Nov 20042,314
Oct–Dec 20042,307
Nov–Jan 20052,292
Dec–Feb 20052,283
Jan–Mar 20052,285
Feb–Apr 20052,327
Mar–May 20052,311
Apr–Jun 20052,296
May–Jul 20052,266
Jun–Aug 20052,256
Jul–Sep 20052,248
Aug–Oct 20052,265
Sep–Nov 20052,264
Oct–Dec 20052,255
Nov–Jan 20062,247
Dec–Feb 20062,229
Jan–Mar 20062,223
Feb–Apr 20062,211
Mar–May 20062,233
Apr–Jun 20062,242
May–Jul 20062,227
Jun–Aug 20062,198
Jul–Sep 20062,194
Aug–Oct 20062,214
Sep–Nov 20062,229
Oct–Dec 20062,228
Nov–Jan 20072,214
Dec–Feb 20072,245
Jan–Mar 20072,242
Feb–Apr 20072,247
Mar–May 20072,211
Apr–Jun 20072,209
May–Jul 20072,216
Jun–Aug 20072,215
Jul–Sep 20072,200
Aug–Oct 20072,201
Sep–Nov 20072,202
Oct–Dec 20072,220
Nov–Jan 20082,228
Dec–Feb 20082,215
Jan–Mar 20082,224
Feb–Apr 20082,221
Mar–May 20082,196
Apr–Jun 20082,174
May–Jul 20082,175
Jun–Aug 20082,201
Jul–Sep 20082,227
Aug–Oct 20082,197
Sep–Nov 20082,182
Oct–Dec 20082,149
Nov–Jan 20092,163
Dec–Feb 20092,173
Jan–Mar 20092,160
Feb–Apr 20092,145
Mar–May 20092,153
Apr–Jun 20092,144
May–Jul 20092,156
Jun–Aug 20092,179
Jul–Sep 20092,191
Aug–Oct 20092,168
Sep–Nov 20092,184
Oct–Dec 20092,178
Nov–Jan 20102,175
Dec–Feb 20102,181
Jan–Mar 20102,205
Feb–Apr 20102,228
Mar–May 20102,233
Apr–Jun 20102,246
May–Jul 20102,234
Jun–Aug 20102,228
Jul–Sep 20102,224
Aug–Oct 20102,228
Sep–Nov 20102,230
Oct–Dec 20102,230
Nov–Jan 20112,205
Dec–Feb 20112,183
Jan–Mar 20112,190
Feb–Apr 20112,191
Mar–May 20112,192
Apr–Jun 20112,189
May–Jul 20112,191
Jun–Aug 20112,189
Jul–Sep 20112,189
Aug–Oct 20112,186
Sep–Nov 20112,175
Oct–Dec 20112,139
Nov–Jan 20122,121
Dec–Feb 20122,154
Jan–Mar 20122,156
Feb–Apr 20122,159
Mar–May 20122,164
Apr–Jun 20122,140
May–Jul 20122,125
Jun–Aug 20122,072
Jul–Sep 20122,064
Aug–Oct 20122,087
Sep–Nov 20122,062
Oct–Dec 20122,052
Nov–Jan 20132,046
Dec–Feb 20132,053
Jan–Mar 20132,070
Feb–Apr 20132,060
Mar–May 20132,059
Apr–Jun 20132,064
May–Jul 20132,013
Jun–Aug 20132,007
Jul–Sep 20131,984
Aug–Oct 20131,974
Sep–Nov 20132,016
Oct–Dec 20132,043
Nov–Jan 20142,041
Dec–Feb 20142,007
Jan–Mar 20141,996
Feb–Apr 20141,998
Mar–May 20141,990
Apr–Jun 20141,991
May–Jul 20142,027
Jun–Aug 20142,018
Jul–Sep 20142,022
Aug–Oct 20142,024
Sep–Nov 20142,039
Oct–Dec 20142,036
Nov–Jan 20152,028
Dec–Feb 20152,024
Jan–Mar 20152,026
Feb–Apr 20152,042
Mar–May 20152,075
Apr–Jun 20152,085
May–Jul 20152,094
Jun–Aug 20152,102
Jul–Sep 20152,111
Aug–Oct 20152,078
Sep–Nov 20152,088
Oct–Dec 20152,074
Nov–Jan 20162,105
Dec–Feb 20162,081
Jan–Mar 20162,100
Feb–Apr 20162,089
Mar–May 20162,055
Apr–Jun 20162,042
May–Jul 20162,035
Jun–Aug 20162,009
Jul–Sep 20162,007
Aug–Oct 20161,990
Sep–Nov 20161,999
Oct–Dec 20161,959
Nov–Jan 20171,991
Dec–Feb 20171,985
Jan–Mar 20171,991
Feb–Apr 20171,979
Mar–May 20171,994
Apr–Jun 20171,982
May–Jul 20172,007
Jun–Aug 20172,023
Jul–Sep 20172,055
Aug–Oct 20172,032
Sep–Nov 20171,982
Oct–Dec 20171,997
Nov–Jan 20181,987
Dec–Feb 20181,984
Jan–Mar 20181,977
Feb–Apr 20181,986
Mar–May 20182,004
Apr–Jun 20182,043
May–Jul 20182,049
Jun–Aug 20182,032
Jul–Sep 20182,000
Aug–Oct 20181,983
Sep–Nov 20181,992
Oct–Dec 20182,007
Nov–Jan 20192,006
Dec–Feb 20191,979
Jan–Mar 20192,012
Feb–Apr 20191,983
Mar–May 20192,026
Apr–Jun 20192,030
May–Jul 20192,062
Jun–Aug 20192,067
Jul–Sep 20192,062
Aug–Oct 20192,089
Sep–Nov 20192,086
Oct–Dec 20192,080
Nov–Jan 20202,117
Dec–Feb 20202,118
Jan–Mar 20202,229
Feb–Apr 20202,243
Mar–May 20202,234
Apr–Jun 20202,233
May–Jul 20202,262
Jun–Aug 20202,288
Jul–Sep 20202,327
Aug–Oct 20202,320
Sep–Nov 20202,291
Oct–Dec 20202,328
Nov–Jan 20212,297
Dec–Feb 20212,263
Jan–Mar 20212,307
Feb–Apr 20212,288
Mar–May 20212,313
Apr–Jun 20212,297
May–Jul 20212,326
Jun–Aug 20212,376
Jul–Sep 20212,396
Aug–Oct 20212,400
Sep–Nov 20212,446
Oct–Dec 20212,436
Nov–Jan 20222,446
Dec–Feb 20222,460
Jan–Mar 20222,440
Feb–Apr 20222,466
Mar–May 20222,443
Apr–Jun 20222,506
May–Jul 20222,581
Jun–Aug 20222,639
Jul–Sep 20222,636
Aug–Oct 20222,586
Sep–Nov 20222,561
Oct–Dec 20222,586
Nov–Jan 20232,670
Dec–Feb 20232,706
Jan–Mar 20232,699
Feb–Apr 20232,689
Mar–May 20232,665
Apr–Jun 20232,706
May–Jul 20232,735
Jun–Aug 20232,737
Jul–Sep 20232,742
Aug–Oct 20232,824
Sep–Nov 20232,850
Oct–Dec 20232,849
Nov–Jan 20242,821
Dec–Feb 20242,842
Jan–Mar 20242,824
Feb–Apr 20242,830
Mar–May 20242,829
Apr–Jun 20242,824
May–Jul 20242,835
Jun–Aug 20242,796
Jul–Sep 20242,793
Aug–Oct 20242,798
Sep–Nov 20242,805
Oct–Dec 20242,776
Nov–Jan 20252,812
Dec–Feb 20252,784
Jan–Mar 20252,775
Feb–Apr 20252,782
Mar–May 20252,776
Apr–Jun 20252,780
May–Jul 20252,792
Jun–Aug 20252,824
Jul–Sep 20252,826
Aug–Oct 20252,818
Sep–Nov 20252,800
Oct–Dec 20252,786
Nov–Jan 20262,785
Dec–Feb 20262,792
Jan–Mar 20262,772
Feb–Apr 20262,772
Mar–May 20262,747
Apr–Jun 20262,774
May–Jul 20262,780

Is the share of working-age people outside the labour market rising?

20.9% of 16–64-year-olds are economically inactive — above the 20.6% of late 2019

People aged 16–64 neither working nor looking for work, for any reason (study, caring, sickness, retirement and others), as a percentage of all people aged 16–64, UK, seasonally adjusted, 2000 to May–Jul 2026.

United Kingdom · 2000 to May–Jul 2026

1996–2026 displayed window · observations only. Shading marks years outside the displayed record.

Per cent of people aged 16–64No observations shown20%21%22%23%24%axis does not start at 020002010202020.9%
The overall inactivity rate has moved much less than the sickness count, because other groups — students, carers, early retirees — changed in different directions. So the rise in sickness is not simply the whole working-age population pulling back from work. Read the two charts together but do not add them.

United Kingdom · 2000 to May–Jul 2026 · Official statistics, Labour Force Survey

Sources, definitions and data — 20.9% of 16–64-year-olds are economically inactive — above the 20.6% of late 2019
Geography:
United Kingdom — All people aged 16–64
Measure:
Per cent of people aged 16–64
Period:
2000 to May–Jul 2026
Status:
Official statistics, Labour Force Survey
Calculation:
As published (LF2S).
Compare with:
October–December 2019: 20.6%
Not included / breaks:
All reasons for inactivity together. Long-term sickness is one reason among several; students are the other large group. Shown separately from the sickness count because the two are different measures.

Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey: economic inactivity rate 16–64, LF2S (released 15 September 2026). Chart WORK-05.

View the data as a table
Three months toInactivity rate (%)
Nov–Jan 200023.3
Dec–Feb 200023.3
Jan–Mar 200023.2
Feb–Apr 200023.2
Mar–May 200023.2
Apr–Jun 200023.3
May–Jul 200023.3
Jun–Aug 200023.3
Jul–Sep 200023.2
Aug–Oct 200023.3
Sep–Nov 200023.5
Oct–Dec 200023.5
Nov–Jan 200123.3
Dec–Feb 200123.3
Jan–Mar 200123.4
Feb–Apr 200123.4
Mar–May 200123.5
Apr–Jun 200123.4
May–Jul 200123.5
Jun–Aug 200123.5
Jul–Sep 200123.5
Aug–Oct 200123.5
Sep–Nov 200123.4
Oct–Dec 200123.4
Nov–Jan 200223.5
Dec–Feb 200223.6
Jan–Mar 200223.6
Feb–Apr 200223.4
Mar–May 200223.3
Apr–Jun 200223.3
May–Jul 200223.4
Jun–Aug 200223.3
Jul–Sep 200223.3
Aug–Oct 200223.2
Sep–Nov 200223.2
Oct–Dec 200223.2
Nov–Jan 200323.4
Dec–Feb 200323.4
Jan–Mar 200323.3
Feb–Apr 200323.3
Mar–May 200323.3
Apr–Jun 200323.3
May–Jul 200323.2
Jun–Aug 200323.3
Jul–Sep 200323.3
Aug–Oct 200323.3
Sep–Nov 200323.4
Oct–Dec 200323.5
Nov–Jan 200423.3
Dec–Feb 200423.2
Jan–Mar 200423.2
Feb–Apr 200423.3
Mar–May 200423.4
Apr–Jun 200423.4
May–Jul 200423.5
Jun–Aug 200423.5
Jul–Sep 200423.5
Aug–Oct 200423.5
Sep–Nov 200423.4
Oct–Dec 200423.3
Nov–Jan 200523.2
Dec–Feb 200523.1
Jan–Mar 200523.3
Feb–Apr 200523.4
Mar–May 200523.4
Apr–Jun 200523.4
May–Jul 200523.4
Jun–Aug 200523.3
Jul–Sep 200523.3
Aug–Oct 200523.3
Sep–Nov 200523.3
Oct–Dec 200523.3
Nov–Jan 200623.3
Dec–Feb 200623.2
Jan–Mar 200623.0
Feb–Apr 200622.9
Mar–May 200623.0
Apr–Jun 200622.9
May–Jul 200622.8
Jun–Aug 200622.7
Jul–Sep 200622.9
Aug–Oct 200622.9
Sep–Nov 200623.0
Oct–Dec 200623.0
Nov–Jan 200723.1
Dec–Feb 200723.2
Jan–Mar 200723.2
Feb–Apr 200723.2
Mar–May 200723.1
Apr–Jun 200723.2
May–Jul 200723.2
Jun–Aug 200723.2
Jul–Sep 200723.2
Aug–Oct 200723.1
Sep–Nov 200723.1
Oct–Dec 200723.1
Nov–Jan 200823.0
Dec–Feb 200822.9
Jan–Mar 200823.0
Feb–Apr 200822.9
Mar–May 200822.9
Apr–Jun 200822.9
May–Jul 200822.9
Jun–Aug 200823.0
Jul–Sep 200823.0
Aug–Oct 200823.1
Sep–Nov 200822.9
Oct–Dec 200822.9
Nov–Jan 200922.7
Dec–Feb 200922.8
Jan–Mar 200922.8
Feb–Apr 200922.9
Mar–May 200923.0
Apr–Jun 200923.1
May–Jul 200923.3
Jun–Aug 200923.2
Jul–Sep 200923.3
Aug–Oct 200923.3
Sep–Nov 200923.4
Oct–Dec 200923.4
Nov–Jan 201023.6
Dec–Feb 201023.6
Jan–Mar 201023.6
Feb–Apr 201023.6
Mar–May 201023.4
Apr–Jun 201023.5
May–Jul 201023.3
Jun–Aug 201023.3
Jul–Sep 201023.2
Aug–Oct 201023.3
Sep–Nov 201023.5
Oct–Dec 201023.5
Nov–Jan 201123.3
Dec–Feb 201123.3
Jan–Mar 201123.4
Feb–Apr 201123.5
Mar–May 201123.4
Apr–Jun 201123.3
May–Jul 201123.5
Jun–Aug 201123.4
Jul–Sep 201123.4
Aug–Oct 201123.3
Sep–Nov 201123.2
Oct–Dec 201123.2
Nov–Jan 201223.2
Dec–Feb 201223.2
Jan–Mar 201223.1
Feb–Apr 201223.1
Mar–May 201223.0
Apr–Jun 201222.8
May–Jul 201222.6
Jun–Aug 201222.6
Jul–Sep 201222.7
Aug–Oct 201222.7
Sep–Nov 201222.5
Oct–Dec 201222.4
Nov–Jan 201322.4
Dec–Feb 201322.5
Jan–Mar 201322.6
Feb–Apr 201322.6
Mar–May 201322.7
Apr–Jun 201322.5
May–Jul 201322.4
Jun–Aug 201322.4
Jul–Sep 201322.3
Aug–Oct 201322.3
Sep–Nov 201322.3
Oct–Dec 201322.3
Nov–Jan 201422.2
Dec–Feb 201422.2
Jan–Mar 201422.2
Feb–Apr 201422.1
Mar–May 201422.0
Apr–Jun 201422.2
May–Jul 201422.3
Jun–Aug 201422.2
Jul–Sep 201422.2
Aug–Oct 201422.3
Sep–Nov 201422.4
Oct–Dec 201422.3
Nov–Jan 201522.2
Dec–Feb 201522.1
Jan–Mar 201522.2
Feb–Apr 201522.2
Mar–May 201522.2
Apr–Jun 201522.2
May–Jul 201522.2
Jun–Aug 201522.2
Jul–Sep 201522.0
Aug–Oct 201521.9
Sep–Nov 201521.9
Oct–Dec 201521.9
Nov–Jan 201621.9
Dec–Feb 201621.8
Jan–Mar 201621.9
Feb–Apr 201621.9
Mar–May 201621.7
Apr–Jun 201621.7
May–Jul 201621.6
Jun–Aug 201621.6
Jul–Sep 201621.7
Aug–Oct 201621.7
Sep–Nov 201621.8
Oct–Dec 201621.7
Nov–Jan 201721.7
Dec–Feb 201721.7
Jan–Mar 201721.6
Feb–Apr 201721.6
Mar–May 201721.6
Apr–Jun 201721.4
May–Jul 201721.3
Jun–Aug 201721.5
Jul–Sep 201721.7
Aug–Oct 201721.6
Sep–Nov 201721.3
Oct–Dec 201721.4
Nov–Jan 201821.3
Dec–Feb 201821.3
Jan–Mar 201821.2
Feb–Apr 201821.1
Mar–May 201821.1
Apr–Jun 201821.3
May–Jul 201821.4
Jun–Aug 201821.3
Jul–Sep 201821.3
Aug–Oct 201821.1
Sep–Nov 201821.1
Oct–Dec 201821.1
Nov–Jan 201920.9
Dec–Feb 201920.8
Jan–Mar 201921.0
Feb–Apr 201920.9
Mar–May 201920.9
Apr–Jun 201920.7
May–Jul 201920.8
Jun–Aug 201920.9
Jul–Sep 201920.8
Aug–Oct 201920.9
Sep–Nov 201920.7
Oct–Dec 201920.6
Nov–Jan 202020.5
Dec–Feb 202020.3
Jan–Mar 202020.7
Feb–Apr 202021.0
Mar–May 202021.2
Apr–Jun 202021.3
May–Jul 202021.2
Jun–Aug 202021.3
Jul–Sep 202021.4
Aug–Oct 202021.4
Sep–Nov 202021.3
Oct–Dec 202021.5
Nov–Jan 202121.5
Dec–Feb 202121.5
Jan–Mar 202121.6
Feb–Apr 202121.7
Mar–May 202121.7
Apr–Jun 202121.6
May–Jul 202121.5
Jun–Aug 202121.5
Jul–Sep 202121.4
Aug–Oct 202121.6
Sep–Nov 202121.6
Oct–Dec 202121.6
Nov–Jan 202221.7
Dec–Feb 202221.8
Jan–Mar 202221.9
Feb–Apr 202221.8
Mar–May 202221.7
Apr–Jun 202221.9
May–Jul 202222.2
Jun–Aug 202222.1
Jul–Sep 202222.1
Aug–Oct 202221.9
Sep–Nov 202221.9
Oct–Dec 202221.7
Nov–Jan 202321.7
Dec–Feb 202321.7
Jan–Mar 202321.5
Feb–Apr 202321.4
Mar–May 202321.4
Apr–Jun 202321.4
May–Jul 202321.6
Jun–Aug 202321.9
Jul–Sep 202321.8
Aug–Oct 202321.9
Sep–Nov 202322.0
Oct–Dec 202322.0
Nov–Jan 202422.0
Dec–Feb 202422.1
Jan–Mar 202422.0
Feb–Apr 202422.1
Mar–May 202422.1
Apr–Jun 202422.1
May–Jul 202421.9
Jun–Aug 202421.8
Jul–Sep 202421.6
Aug–Oct 202421.7
Sep–Nov 202421.6
Oct–Dec 202421.5
Nov–Jan 202521.5
Dec–Feb 202521.3
Jan–Mar 202521.3
Feb–Apr 202521.2
Mar–May 202521.0
Apr–Jun 202520.9
May–Jul 202521.0
Jun–Aug 202521.0
Jul–Sep 202520.9
Aug–Oct 202521.0
Sep–Nov 202520.8
Oct–Dec 202520.9
Nov–Jan 202620.7
Dec–Feb 202621.0
Jan–Mar 202620.9
Feb–Apr 202621.0
Mar–May 202620.9
Apr–Jun 202620.9
May–Jul 202620.9

Why has it risen? Competing explanations

The survey records a reason, not a diagnosis or a cause. Several explanations are put forward, and they are not mutually exclusive:

  • Worse health. More people reporting mental health conditions and multiple conditions, and an older working-age population, would raise the count directly.
  • Access to treatment. Longer NHS waits may keep some people out of work for longer. The association is plausible, but waiting-list totals cannot tell us how many people would return to work after treatment.
  • Benefits and assessment. Changes in how health-related benefits are assessed may affect who reports sickness as their reason; how large this effect is remains disputed.
  • Measurement. Survey response fell sharply after 2020 and ONS reweighted the survey, so the level is less certain than the direction.

Which of these matters most is still being researched. What the data do establish is the scale: about 700,000 more people out of work mainly through sickness than at the end of 2019. For the health service side of the story, see NHS waiting times and access to care — read it as context, not as a measured cause.

What has been tested

Individual Placement and Support (IPS) pairs an employment specialist with health services and helps people into a job quickly, with support continuing after they start. It is well evidenced for people with severe mental illness. A UK randomised trial tested it more widely, in primary and community care in the West Midlands and Sheffield City Region (9,785 people, 2018–19). Out-of-work participants in the West Midlands were 4 percentage points more likely to work for 13 weeks or more in the following year; people already in work in Sheffield City Region saw a 3-point effect; out-of-work participants there saw none. There was no effect on earnings within a year.

That is a real but modest effect, and it varied by place — a reason to judge the national Connect to Work programme on sustained jobs, not starts. The options, including workplace adjustments to stop people leaving work in the first place, are compared in What would move the needle?

Sources and methods (3)

Method notes

  • Long-term sickness here is the main reason given for economic inactivity, ages 16–64; people in work with a health condition are not included.
  • Three-month windows are labelled by their full span and plotted at the final month.
  • Sickness inactivity and the inactivity rate are different measures with different units; they are shown separately and must not be added.