Brexit · Migration · United Kingdom · year to June 2016 to year to December 2025
What changed once free movement ended?
Who came changed more than how many. EU+ net migration fell below zero — −42k in the year to December 2025 — while non-EU+ net migration, governed by UK visa rules, rose to +1,047k before falling to +350k. The total reflected later visa decisions, not the end of free movement alone.
Evidence last reviewed 3 October 2026
Two lines moving in opposite directions
What happened to migration once free movement ended?
EU+ net migration turned negative; non-EU+ net migration rose, then fell back to +350k
Net long-term migration to the UK by nationality group, thousands, rolling 12 months, year to June 2012 to year to December 2025.
1996–2026 displayed window · observations only. Shading marks years outside the displayed record.
United Kingdom · year to June 2012 to year to December 2025 · Official statistics in development; provisional and revised substantially in past releases
Sources, definitions and data — EU+ net migration turned negative; non-EU+ net migration rose, then fell back to +350k
- Geography:
- United Kingdom — Long-term migrants (moving for 12 months or more); EU+ = EU, EEA and Switzerland
- Measure:
- Thousands of people, net (arrivals minus departures)
- Period:
- year to June 2012 to year to December 2025
- Status:
- Official statistics in development; provisional and revised substantially in past releases
- Calculation:
- As published; plotted at the end of each rolling year and shown in thousands.
- Compare with:
- The year to June 2016 (referendum) level: EU+ +322k, non-EU+ +82k on ONS’s current back series
- Not included / breaks:
- ONS’s current estimates for 2016 differ from those published at the time, which came from the International Passenger Survey. British nationals are excluded here; their net migration is negative. Humanitarian routes (Ukraine, Hong Kong) are inside the non-EU+ line.
Source: ONS, Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2025, Table 1 (released 21 May 2026). Chart BREXIT-04.
View the data as a table
| Rolling year | EU+ (thousands) | Non-EU+ (thousands) |
|---|---|---|
| year to June 2012 | 187 | 57 |
| year to September 2012 | 183 | 54 |
| year to December 2012 | 206 | 61 |
| year to March 2013 | 223 | 60 |
| year to June 2013 | 242 | 56 |
| year to September 2013 | 275 | 64 |
| year to December 2013 | 262 | 63 |
| year to March 2014 | 263 | 67 |
| year to June 2014 | 258 | 65 |
| year to September 2014 | 270 | 73 |
| year to December 2014 | 277 | 87 |
| year to March 2015 | 275 | 94 |
| year to June 2015 | 267 | 101 |
| year to September 2015 | 262 | 103 |
| year to December 2015 | 287 | 88 |
| year to March 2016 | 294 | 80 |
| year to June 2016 | 322 | 82 |
| year to September 2016 | 294 | 83 |
| year to December 2016 | 253 | 90 |
| year to March 2017 | 235 | 97 |
| year to June 2017 | 188 | 91 |
| year to September 2017 | 192 | 98 |
| year to December 2017 | 176 | 114 |
| year to March 2018 | 160 | 122 |
| year to June 2018 | 158 | 143 |
| year to September 2018 | 138 | 155 |
| year to December 2018 | 170 | 178 |
| year to March 2019 | 155 | 190 |
| year to June 2019 | 126 | 179 |
| year to September 2019 | 114 | 171 |
| year to December 2019 | 80 | 186 |
| year to March 2020 | 81 | 166 |
| year to June 2020 | 70 | 115 |
| year to September 2020 | 45 | 60 |
| year to December 2020 | 70 | 101 |
| year to March 2021 | 61 | 150 |
| year to June 2021 | 95 | 242 |
| year to September 2021 | 64 | 433 |
| year to December 2021 | 15 | 522 |
| year to March 2022 | 28 | 634 |
| year to June 2022 | -1 | 750 |
| year to September 2022 | -3 | 901 |
| year to December 2022 | -9 | 981 |
| year to March 2023 | -21 | 1047 |
| year to June 2023 | -30 | 1045 |
| year to September 2023 | -43 | 1031 |
| year to December 2023 | -53 | 1005 |
| year to March 2024 | -57 | 903 |
| year to June 2024 | -61 | 825 |
| year to September 2024 | -64 | 676 |
| year to December 2024 | -63 | 511 |
| year to March 2025 | -58 | 439 |
| year to June 2025 | -53 | 397 |
| year to September 2025 | -47 | 381 |
| year to December 2025 | -42 | 350 |
Of 813,000 long-term arrivals in the year to December 2025, 627,000 (77%) were non-EU+ nationals.
What changed in the rules
| Question | Until 31 December 2020 | From 1 January 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| How EU citizens could come | Free movement: no visa, cap, job offer or salary threshold. | The same points-based routes as other nationals: a qualifying job, a study place, or a family route. |
| Who sets the rules | An EU treaty obligation the UK could not restrict unilaterally. | UK immigration law, changeable by a UK government and Parliament. |
| EU citizens already here | Residence rights under EU law. | Protected through the EU Settlement Scheme under the Withdrawal Agreement. |
Legal basis: Immigration and Social Security Co-ordination (EU Withdrawal) Act 2020.
Control and numbers are different questions
Legally, control was delivered in full: since 1 January 2021 every route into the UK is set in UK law. Numerically, the new system was used to admit more people, not fewer, for several years: total net migration rose to its highest recorded level in 2023, driven by work visas (especially in health and social care), student visas and dependants, and humanitarian schemes for Ukrainians and Hong Kong residents. Visa rules were then tightened from 2024 and net migration fell.
Both are true because control and reduction were always different things. Whether the levels chosen were right is a political judgement; that they were choices made under the new system is not in doubt.
For employers, the end of free movement removed a flexible source of workers that agriculture and food processing, hospitality, haulage and social care had relied on. Some gaps were filled by non-EU recruitment, some by higher wages, and some not at all. Attributing any particular shortage to Brexit alone is difficult because the pandemic disrupted the same sectors at the same time.
Reading the series: these are provisional estimates and ONS revises them substantially; its current figures for 2016 differ from those published at the time of the referendum. The full migration picture — routes, asylum and the latest release — is on Immigration. Options for the UK–EU relationship, including a youth mobility scheme, are in What can change within the present relationship?
Sources and methods (3)
- ONS, Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2025, Table 1 (released 21 May 2026) — net migration and arrivals by nationality group
- Immigration and Social Security Co-ordination (EU Withdrawal) Act 2020 — end of free movement
- ONS, International migration collection — methods and revisions
Method notes
- EU+ means EU, EEA and Swiss nationals, as ONS defines it. Figures are rolling 12-month estimates of long-term migration (12 months or more).